TAMPA — The head of a group advising communities about how to protect military installations from shuttering during Pentagon cost-cutting measures said he is certain Congress will approve another Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission by 2019.
“If I was a betting man, between now and 2019, I’d say 100 percent,” said Anthony Principi, chairman of the Principi group, when asked about the odds Congress will approve a new commission, commonly called BRAC, during the next few years.
Principi is familiar with the process. A former secretary of veterans affairs, he was chairman of the 2005 BRAC. He answered questions posed by the Tribune after the monthly meeting of the Florida Defense Support Task Force, which was holding its 36th meeting — the second in Tampa since its launch in 2012 — at the Westin Tampa Harbour Island Hotel.
For the Tampa area, where MacDill Air Force Base generates nearly $14 billion a year for the local economy, the big question is how will the base fare if and when another BRAC is created.
Principi said MacDill, which survived closure attempts in the 1990s, is well-positioned to survive a BRAC but there are no guarantees. And he urged the Tampa area to continue preparing to make its case to keep the base open.
“I think MacDill will fare OK,” Principi said. “I learned as chairman of the last BRAC commission that you cannot assume any installation is safe. You have to make preparations and do the things to enhance the military value and reduce cost of operations. All those things are factors. There are low risks and high risks in every state and community.”
Having U.S. Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command and Special Operations Command Central at the base is a big plus, said Principi. So, too, is having the 6th Air Mobility Wing and the 927 Air Refueling Wing, as well as plans for eight additional KC-135 tankers, which would bring to 24 the number of the Eisenhower-era refueling jets at the base.
Another plus is a plan to bring 23 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and upward of 150 personnel from St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport to MacDill then replace them with a company of eight C-12 and UC-35 aircraft and about 50 personnel.
A new BRAC would most likely happen in 2019, Principi said, although there is a chance that it could happen by 2017 under a “grand agreement” on a budget compromise between the White House and Congress.
U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, the Orlando Democrat and a ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has a different view, he told the Tribune in an email: “I don’t see a BRAC happening anytime soon as there’s not enough interest in Congress for having one.”
To help convince the Pentagon and a BRAC of the importance of MacDill, local and state politicians, community leaders and groups like the Tampa Bay Defense Alliance and the Florida Defense Support Task Force — created by the state to promote its military installations — need to continue doing what they are doing, Principi said.
He listed improving public-private partnerships, sharing the cost of operations, improving school systems and “making Washington aware of all the good things happening at MacDill” as efforts that will help protect the base.
The Tampa Bay Defense Alliance’s “My MacDill” campaign is a step in that direction.
Principi said there is growing pressure from the White House, Pentagon and Joint Chiefs of Staff for a new round of base closings. He added that in many ways, the process is a good idea because it gives communities more say in the process.
The recent announcement by the Army that it will reduce its force by 40,000 is a good example of why, he said. The Army doesn’t need congressional or community input to make such a move.
Under the BRAC process, either the Senate or House Armed Services committee has to vote to approve a new commission. The Pentagon is then given time to recommend which bases should remain open, close or under realignment.
In addition, the commission itself can place a base on the list, said Principi, whose company has been hired by the state task force to help the Tampa area and MacDill identify and fix deficiencies that led to closings under the previous BRAC.
Because U.S. senators serve six-year terms, longer than the two-year terms of House members, the Senate Armed Services Committee would be the most likely instigator of a new BRAC, Principi said.
Principi offered odds on a new BRAC but was less willing to handicap MacDill’s chances of surviving it, especially with the Air Force on record saying it has too many bases.
“I think they are very positive, but I would not put a percentage on it,” he said. “MacDill is an important part of the national security structure, but again, this is very unpredictable. I’m not inside the Pentagon. I am not prepared to say that you have nothing to worry about or a lot to worry about.”
The good news, he said: “Florida is way out ahead of where other states are in being prepared. It is all about preparation. Once you make the list, the history is that there is an 86 percent chance of staying on the list.”
PHOTO: A refueling plane flies over the Dale Mabry gate at MacDill Air Force Base. TRIBUNE FILE PHOTO