TAMPA — One calls it a win-win for the U.S. and Iran.
One calls it an imperfect deal, but a step in the right direction with a long-mistrusted adversary.
And one calls it a bad deal that will lead to further problems in the Middle East.
Three local Middle Eastern affairs experts contacted by The Tampa �Tribune offered takes Tuesday afternoon on the deal hammered out among Iran and the U.S., Russia, China, England, France and Germany, designed to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons. Meantime, the opinion of those who will have a say in the deal — the Tampa-area’s congressional delegation — breaks down along party lines, with guarded Democrats saying they need more time to study it and Republicans outright opposing it.
The 115-page agreement, the result of nearly two years of often difficult diplomacy, calls for Iran to dismantle much of its nuclear program in order to secure relief from sanctions that have battered its economy. International inspectors can now press for visits to Iran’s military centers, though access is not guaranteed. Centrifuges will keep spinning, though fewer of them, and uranium can still be enriched, though at lower levels. In a key compromise, Iran agreed to continuation of the U.N.’s arms embargo on the country for up to five more years and ballistic missile restrictions for up to eight years. Some of the restrictions on Iran’s activities, such as the reduced percentage of uranium enrichment, last for 15 years,
“This is an historic agreement,” said Mohsen Milani, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of South Florida. “It is a victory for diplomacy and hope over war and cynicism and pessimism.”
The deal, said Milani, “essentially closes all the pathways for Iran to build the bomb, and this is a major victory for the U.S. For Iran, it is a victory because the harsh sanctions imposed on Iran will be lifted as Iran begins to implement its commitment under this new agreement.”
The deal is a victory for both countries, said Milani, “because it can become the beginning of a new chapter between Iran and the U.S., a chapter in which the two countries can work together on common objectives and compete in areas where their interests are irreconcilable. It is a great day.”
Iran agrees to sell or convert its stockpile of enriched uranium at the 20 percent level and will get rid of 97 percent its stockpile of 3.67 percent enriched uranium, said Milani.
“At no time will it have what it needs to build a bomb.”
A key consideration, he said, is that current estimates say it would take Iran about two to three months to build a bomb, whereas under the agreement, it would take more than a year.
“Considering the fact that Iran has accepted the most intrusive inspection regime in the history of non-proliferation treaties, the Western world would have more than a year, should Iran cheat or violate its commitments, to stop Iran form going nuclear.”
In return, Iran eventually regains about $100 billion in frozen assets being held by other governments as a result of its nuclear ambitions, Milani said. Plus, the nation eventually will be able to gain revenue from the sale of oil and natural gas.
Milani said that because five of the six nations Iran negotiated with are nuclear powers — the U.S., Russia, China, England and France — they had the knowledge to ensure the deal includes safeguards to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
As a former CIA operations officer for the Middle East who worked on Iranian issues, including weapons of mass destruction, Lora Griffith of Tampa calls the deal a “step in the right direction.”
“From my perspective, it is good that we are taking a diplomatic step toward official relations with Iran,” Griffith said. “I believe you can’t as long as our relations are 100 percent adversarial.”
That’s particularly important, Griffith said, given the distrust between Iran and the U.S.
Though the Iranians have been “duplicitous in the past” when it comes to dealing with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which will be conducting inspections of Iranian facilities, Griffith said that Iran’s agreement to ship out its expended nuclear rods, which could be potentially used in nuclear weapons, is a positive sign.
That many provisions of the agreement expire over time “is concerning,” said Griffith, adding that the verification process is key.
But Derek Harvey, a retired Army colonel who is executive director of the Global Institute on Civil Society and Conflict at USF, says the deal is just plain bad for the U.S., its allies and the region.
Said Harvey, “I think it will ultimately be destabilizing on the Middle East because I believe, if you read the whole document, for the most part Iran will continue to make additional demands and the U.S. and its partners will continue to move the goal posts closer to Iranian positions.”
The deal is troubling for a number of reasons, he said.
One of them is the return of Iran’s frozen assets with no conditions preventing its “malign behavior in the region,” including funding for Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad and groups like Hizballah and the Houthis in Yemen. The deal will also allow Iran to continue funding its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program “to include its clandestine nuclear warheads program that is not touched,” Harvey said.
In addition, Harvey argues that the inspection program “is very weak.”
One provision of the agreement, on page 42, holds that if the International Atomic Energy Agency has concerns about undeclared locations or activities, it must first present those concerns to the Iranians. If Iranian answers aren’t sufficient, then the agency can ask to inspect the sites.
“Even when you have evidence that suggests violations, you have to go through this tortured process where Iran is given access to the data and the reasons why you think something is some place,” Harvey said. “As you go through this process, they have time to move it, change it or challenge it. It also allows them to go after and identify where the potential sources of information came from.”
USF’s Milani said there should be no concern that the deal’s provisions expire over time, in some cases as long as 25 years.
“What is important is that Iran will embrace the additional protocols,” Milani said. “Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has an obligation not to pursue nuclear weapons. That has no sunset.”
He offered a challenge to those opposed to the deal: “What’s your plan?”
“The people who say this is not the best deal are probably right,” he said. “But it is the best deal possible to be obtained at this time.”
Harvey said his plan would be to make the inspections more rigorous and make permanent the embargo on arms sales and restrictions on ballistic missiles.
“And I would have made sure there is a very good ‘snapback’ sanctions program in place,” he said, making it easier to reinstate sanctions for any violations.
On Capitol Hill, the Tampa Bay area’s congressional delegation reacted swiftly to news of the deal.
Pledging to vote against it were Republican Senator and presidential candidate Marco Rubio, and U.S. Reps. Dennis Ross, R-Lakeland, and Tom Rooney, R-Okeechobee, all pledge to vote against the deal. U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis opposes it and said it is “now up to Congress to examine the specifics of the deal and ensure the most dangerous regime in the Middle East halts its nuclear armament progress…”
U.S. Rep. David Jolly of Indian Shores said he did not support President Barack Obama’s decision to negotiate with Iran and is “highly skeptical of the president’s proposed deal.”
Among Democrats, Sen. Bill Nelson and U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa say they need more time to review the deal before taking a position.
“We’re not going to approve something that doesn’t keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons and doesn’t give us the ability to inspect and verify that Iran abides by all the terms,” Nelson said.
“My overriding concern is whether or not the agreement is in the national security interest of the United States,” Castor said. “Aggressive, enforceable restrictions and thoroughly transparent inspections at any time are fundamental to the approval of such an agreement.”
Information from the Associated Press was included in this story.
PHOTO: An Iranian woman shows the victory sign as people celebrate on a street following a landmark nuclear deal, in Tehran, Iran. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Photos: Derek Harvey, Lora Griffith, Mohsen Milani