To Scott Mann, there is no doubt that the Sunni insurgent group Islamic State will attack the homeland.
Mann is not using classified information or empirical proof to draw his conclusion.
But he is no tinfoil-hatted crank.
A retired Green Beret lieutenant colonel who helped create the Village Stability Operations program in Afghanistan, Mann now runs the Stability Institute in Tampa, working with U.S. Special Operations Command and nonprofit organizations to use the lessons learned while helping to build up Afghan internal security.
“Some organizations may wait to see proof,” says Mann. “But my time as an operator, and learning the lessons of 9/11 tells me that waiting is a dangerous way to do business.”
The Department of Homeland Security “has been concerned about threats emanating from the Middle East in addition to ISIL (Islamic State),” says spokeswoman Marsha Catron. “DHS, in conjunction with our inter-agency partners, will continue to adjust security measures, as appropriate, to protect the American people.”
But Mann sees the biggest threat from Islamic State, offering a series of interlocking rationales for why he believes an attack on the U.S. is matter of when, not if.
By seizing as much territory as it has in Iraq and Syria, Islamic State, which Mann refers to by the acronym ISIS, “has trumped al-Qaida in terms of strategic relevance by actually establishing a caliphate, something al-Qaida talked about for 10 years but was never able to pull off.”
That, he says, has created “a very, very prolific movement throughout the Islamic ummah — the religious base,” says Mann. “This energy around the reestablishment of the caliphate has started popping up in other places. They are selling ISIS T-shirts on Amazon.”
Meanwhile, the Obama administration’s response — a pinpoint aerial campaign of more than 200 airstrikes in Syria and Iraq that has included taking out Islamic State mobile refineries generating some $2 million a day in revenue — is still not enough, says Mann.
“There is plenty of space for them to dig in and hold terrain,” says Mann, “and they are working at the community level, like we did with the VSO program. They are moving in and out of the Sunni population like the proverbial fish in the sea. They are very adept at working with locals, which gives me cause for concern.”
The next major point, says Mann, is that Islamic State has amassed a huge war chest of a few billion dollars, captured “state-of-the-art maneuver equipment and acquired some level of chemical munitions from Syria.”
On top of that, the jihadi group has orchestrated a now-infamous campaign of “really audacious, in-your-face interpersonal violence,” says Mann. “Sawing off the heads of two journalists and posting it on YouTube has created a real movement. With their propensity for violence, there is no need to wait for a spectacular attack. They are not in any way afraid of what our saber rattling is doing.”
The airstrikes in Syria have caused Islamic State to ratchet up its social media campaign, says Mann, “with ISIS calls to their followers in the U.S. to slaughter the military, military families and civilians wherever they are.”
Adding to the concern, says Mann, are people with U.S. passports or visas who have gone to Syria to fight with Islamic State, which may be as many as 100 or as few a dozen, depending on who you ask.
“A significant number of folks have gone over there,” says Mann. “But even those who haven’t certainly possess the will and capability to strike here. The Boston Marathon bombers did not go to FATA (Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, an al-Qaida safe-haven).”
Mann points to a recent situation in Australia, where an Islamic State sympathizer attacked police, as a harbinger.
“That level of audacious, overt, interpersonal violence not seen in the homeland before from violent extremists is going to be their response to Obama’s limited bombing campaign,” says Mann, who is about to publish a new book, “Game Changers: New Ways To Defeat Violent Extremism.”
“The final thing that really gives me a cause for concern,” says Mann, “is our ridiculously open border.”
Mann suggests that Islamic State, with its hefty coffers, can link in to the existing illicit pipelines already moving people and drugs across the border to “move something nasty.
“It is going to happen,” says Mann, adding that the likely U.S. response will be similar to what happened after 9/11, “saddling up and going after the bad guys. And we will find ourselves right back in there, which is exactly what they want.”
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With one of the nation’s largest veteran populations, two of the nation’s busiest VA hospitals and the nation’s busiest VA compensation claim center in the area, I frequently write about the James A. Haley Veterans’ Hospital and the C.W. Bill Young VA Medical Center.
I’ve covered the great programs and personnel at each hospital, and some of the troubles they face and problems they have as they deal with tens of thousands of patients every year.
But there is another aspect I rarely get to.
The economic benefits of having two huge VA hospitals in the region.
Here’s what I found after recently receiving a response to my federal Freedom of Information Act request from the VA Sunshine Health Care Network, which oversees VA medical centers in Florida, south Georgia, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Haley and Young combined employ more than 8,700 people and generate more than $600 million in annual salary, wages and bonus (or, as the VA refers to it, awards).
Drilling down a little deeper, if you average it out, the jobs at the two veterans hospitals pay well — $79,000 at Haley and $75,600 at the Young center.
But that is not really a good measure, because the average includes top earners — physicians earning $375,000 with $3,000 awards — and food service workers earning $9.70 an hour, adding up to $20,243 a year, with no bonus.
At Haley, about half of the 4,256 salaried employees earned a total of $2 million in awards, for an average of about $969. A little more than half of the 421 hourly employees earned awards, totaling $114,000 and averaging $500.
At the Young center, a little less than half of the 3,399 salaried employees received a total of $1.5 million in awards, for an average award of about $1,000. About half of the 442 hourly workers received awards, totaling $117,000 and averaging $533.
Like salaries and wages, the awards vary greatly, from nearly $9,000 for a director to $184 for a housekeeping aid.
Overall, the salaries, wages and bonus figures are in line with similar-sized private hospitals like Tampa General Hospital.
With about 6,000 employees, TGH generated $374 million in salary and wages for fiscal year 2013, the most recent figures available according to spokesman John Dunn.
That is an average salary of $62,000.
TGH also gave out $2.6 million in bonuses. The hospital did not break down employees by salary and hourly, but overall, that represents an average bonus of about $433.
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I was off part of last week and didn’t have a column. Last week, the Pentagon announced the deaths of two service members and a civilian contractor in Afghanistan.
The Department of Defense announced the death of a soldier and a Department of Defense civilian who were supporting Operation Enduring Freedom.
Maj. Michael J. Donahue, 41, of Columbus, Ohio, and Stephen Byus, 39, of Reynoldsburg, Ohio, died Sept. 16, in Kabul, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered from an enemy attack.
Donahue was assigned to the Headquarters and Headquarters Battalion, XVIII Airborne Corps, Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Byus, a civilian, was a member of the Defense Logistics Agency Land and Maritime in Columbus, Ohio, working as a supply specialist, and assigned to the Combined Security Transition Command Afghanistan while deployed.
Sgt. Charles C. Strong, 28, of Suffolk, Virginia, died Sept. 15, in Herat province, Afghanistan, while conducting combat operations. He was assigned to 2nd Marine Special Operations Battalion, Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina.
There have now been 2,337 U.S. troop deaths in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, the nation’s longest war.