These are curious times in which we live, when so much is happening, and, even in our interconnected world, figuring out the truth remains a huge challenge.
Last week, for instance, I wrote about whether the hacking of Sony Pictures Entertainment, in retaliation for the studio’s release of a movie depicting the killing of North Korea’s despotic leader, and the resulting economic damage and follow-on threats, would constitute an act of war. And if so, what steps should be taken.
That, of course, was based on the FBI’s contention that North Korea was behind it. And President Barack Obama’s amplification of that contention.
But the day before Christmas, The Daily Beast pushed back against the FBI, calling the evidence it publicly presented against the Hermit Kingdom “weak” and “flimsy.”
“The evidence used to attribute a nation state in such a case should be solid enough that it would be both admissible and effective in a court of law,” argued Marc Rogers, director of security operations for DEF CON, the world’s largest hacker conference, and the principal security researcher for the world’s leading mobile security company, Cloudflare. “As it stands, I do not believe we are anywhere close to meeting that standard.”
If the headline over Rogers’ story is correct — No, North Korea Did Not Hack Sony — then I pretty much ate a big old hunk of yellow cake last week.
Now, having seen the film, I can see why Kim Jong-un would be un-happy, what with the scathing portrayal of his country, his megalomaniacal rule and, spoiler-alert, his cinematic, head-blowing demise.
(“The Interview” for what it is worth, was way better than I thought it would be, even if the concept of a sitting world leader being offed, by the media no less, is somewhat disquieting).
In making what amounts to its indictment of North Korea, the FBI acknowledged that it has withheld details about its investigation “to protect sensitive sources and methods.”
Do those withheld details offer airtight proof?
Perhaps. The FBI didn’t get back to me when I asked about Rogers’ story.
But given that nearly 4,500 fellow citizens gave their lives in a war unleashed on the basis of weak and flimsy evidence, a healthy dose of skepticism, especially from my profession, is warranted.
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No matter what caused it, the crash of a Jordanian Air Force F-16 while on a mission over Raqqa, Syria, represents a predictable, and dangerous raising of stakes in the Operation Inherent Resolve battle against the Sunni insurgent group Islamic State.
Whether he was brought down by one its antiaircraft weapons, as the Islamic State maintains, or whether the jihadis had nothing to do with it, as U.S. Central Command insists, Moaz al-Kassasbeh’s boots, or more likely his bootless feet, are clearly on the ground in Syria now.
With more than 1,300 airstrikes since the battle against Islamic State began on Aug. 8, it was inevitable that sooner or later, a U.S. or coalition aircraft would fall out of the sky, either as the result of the many weapons Islamic State looted in its march across Syria and Iraq, or through mechanical failure, weather issues or some combination. And that a pilot, or aircrew, would fall into enemy hands. The jihadis have already shot down a few Iraqi helicopters.
Undoubtedly, Centcom and coalition planners have developed contingencies for such situations. In this case, Centcom officials tell me that the command will support efforts to recover al-Kassabeh,
“We can’t get into any specifics,” Cmdr Lisa Brackenbury, a Centcom spokeswoman told me, “But we will support efforts to recover the pilot in coordination with Jordanian Armed Forces.”
A good example of what happens when a U.S. pilot is on the ground in hostile territory came in March, 2011, during the air campaign over Libya. That resulted in a Marine quick reaction force being launched from the USS Kearsarge. Using two AV/8B Harriers, two MV-22 Ospreys and two CH-53E Super Stallions carrying a quick reaction force, the Marines recovered the pilot of an F-15 that crashed due in large part to how it was loaded.
Efforts to retrieve al-Kassabeh are infinitely more complicated. Islamic State video shows him hauled, half naked, out of a body of water, then paraded by several armed fighters. Given the jihadi group’s infamous barbarism, the outlook for al-Kassabeh is not good.
With that in mind, I asked a couple of former combat pilots I know about their thoughts about the Jordanian’s fate.
“My concern is his treatment as prisoner, torture etc.,” says Lavely, who flew U2 spy planes over Afghanistan at the beginning of the war. “ISIS are at their toughest when you are disarmed and a prisoner. No Geneva Convention here.”
Lavely says seeing footage of al-Kassabeh being captured brought back old thoughts.
“The same thoughts we had during first flights over Afghanistan with al-Qaida on ground,” he says. “Escape and evade hoping the calvary finds you first or fight like Davy Crockett to the finish.”
The Jordanian pilot’s best hope would be, as has been reported, if he is traded for Islamic State prisoners held by Jordan, says Jeffrey Cathey, a Bank of America senior vice president who flew 100 combat missions for the Navy off of aircraft carriers.
Cathey knows from experience what it is like to have to bail out of a plane. In 1984, the A-7 he was flying experienced engine failure and he had to jump out over the ocean, southwest of Cyprus. Other than the bailing out part, Cathey was fortunate in that he landed in friendly territory.
Aside from the training they receive called SERE (survival, evasion, resistance, escape), U.S. pilots are often given what’s called a “blood chit” before missions to be used in case they crash, says Cathey. The blood chit, he says, is an offer of a reward in return for helping a down pilot get to safety.
But even if he had one, it won’t do al-Kassabeh any good.
“I do not know if the Jordanian pilot had something like that or not,” says Cathey. “But it won’t much matter. They are going to look at him like an attacking pilot over their airspace. Once they capture you, you represent a lot of leverage for them. They are going to look for ransom or bring attention to their cause. That’s probably the value that ISIS gets out of this Jordanian pilot and they will draw that out.”
Regardless of how al-Kassabeh was downed, or what will happen to him, the Jordanians are still flying missions over Afghanistan, according to the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, which is running day-to-day operations on behalf of Centcom. According to the task force’s most recent release prior to my deadline, the Jordanian Air Force had taken part in an airstrike over Kobane, Syria, on Dec. 26.
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Not only is this my last column for the year, it is the last column of Operation Enduring Freedom, which began Oct. 7, 2001 with allied airstrikes and ended Dec. 28, to be replaced by Operation Freedom’s Sentinel.
Over those 13-plus years, about 50 troops who called the Tampa area home made the ultimate sacrifice. I have written about almost every one that took place since I took over the military beat nearly five years ago.
Many more have wounds seen and unseen, health issues that we as a nation have an obligation to care of, in some cases, approaching the year 2100. Then there will be the communal challenge of reintegrating retiring and separating service members back into the civilian world.
There will be plenty more to write about those issues in 2015.
And just because the name of the operation will change, Afghanistan, it bears repeating again, will remain a dangerous place for those still there.
There were no U.S. troop deaths reported by the Pentagon last week in support of operations in Afghanistan or Iraq and Syria.
There have been 2,346 U.S. troop deaths in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, the nation’s longest war. And three U.S. troop deaths in support of Operation Inherent Resolve, the nation’s newest conflict.